Natural Gas Storage Report Injection Season Week 21 (Week Ending August 25, 2017)

Hurricane Harvey and its aftermath showed little impact on Henry Hub futures over this last weekend and continued to stay neutral to bearish after this week’s injection of 30 Bcf, nearly meeting the market expectation of 32 Bcf. Both of these values came in significantly short of the builds from last year and the five-year average, which were previously reported at 46 Bcf and 67 Bcf respectively. The extent of damage from the disaster has yet to be assessed, but the energy sector is already making efforts for relief and recovery along the Gulf Coast, both in commercial and residential spaces. NYMEX may be seeing a non-event from this week’s report, but the impact of Harvey on production and infrastructure certainly could be felt further down the line as we get close to withdrawal season.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,155 Bcf which is within the five-year historical range. This figure is 239 Bcf (7.0%) less than this time last year and 8 Bcf (0.3%) above the five year average.

The October 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.93/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since elevated to $2.97/MMBtu following the EIA report.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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