ENERGY MARKET UPDATE – 4/1/2019

Heating Oil

Heating oil 74

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.23% for the week ending Friday, 3/29, as prices rose $0.0046 per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in April closed at $60.14 per barrel on Friday, 3/29, up 1.02% for the day, and up 1.86% for the week.
  • Crude oil prices rose steadily last week and continued to increase on Monday, trading above $61 a barrel. Manufacturing activity in China grew more than expected in March after three months of declines, reducing investors’ concerns of an economic slowdown and having a positive effect on the market. According to a Reuters’ survey, OPEC oil supplies also sank to a four-year low in March due to production cuts as well as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. This, along with data from Baker Hughes showing another drop in the domestic oil rig count from 824 to 816 last week, further supported prices.

Natural Gas

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  • Prompt-month natural gas futures decreased $0.04 for the week ending Friday, 3/29, to settle at $2.713/Dth. April NYMEX also settled at $2.713/Dth last week.
  • Overall supply increased 0.8 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand decreased by 3.5 Bcf.
  • Natural gas exports in January 2019 were 362,790 million cubic feet, compared with 301,029 million cubic feet in January 2018. This is a 20.52% increase.
  • Net withdrawals from storage totaled 36 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 41 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 66 Bcf during the same week.
  • Working gas stocks total 1,107 Bcf, coming in 551 Bcf less than the five-year average and 285 Bcf lower than last year at this time.

Electricity

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  • Average peak prices in NYC decreased last week, moving down $0.55 to $38.34 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $50.91 between 7-8 AM last Wednesday, 3/27, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G decreased, falling $2.48 to average $29.68 per MWh, and topping out at $47.08 on Tuesday, 3/26, between 7-8 AM.
  • Average peak prices in Central NY’s Zone C decreased, falling $0.75 to average $31.29 per MWh, and topping out at $46.85 on Wednesday, 3/27, between 7-8 AM.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 decreased $0.52 per MWh for NYC and decreased $0.47 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC decreased $0.17 per MWh, and PSE&G prices decreased $0.22 per MWh.
  • Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 decreased $0.65 per MWh for Zone C. Calendar 2020 prices in Zone C decreased $0.31 per MWh.

Weather

Last Week:

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This Week:

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  • Temperatures averaged 2.57°F above historical figures this past week (ending 3/29), and came in 0.36°F below forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 57°F with lows averaging 42°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 1.00°F warmer than seasonal averages, and 1.07°F above last week’s average.
  • Temperatures are expected to rise slightly this week to come in just above last week’s average as well as seasonal norms. Weather will be mostly dry with some precipitation expected on Friday. Short term forecasts show below-average temperatures in parts of the South and Midwest with some spots of above-average temperatures in the Southwest and Northwest. Longer term forecast models are predicting below-average temperatures in parts of the Midwest and Southwest with above-average temperatures in the east of the country.

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