Natural Gas Storage Report Withdrawal Season Week 20 (Week Ending March 16, 2018)

Week 20 of the natural gas withdrawal season saw a draw on storage of 86 Bcf. The average expectation, based on the Reuters survey, was a nearly identical 87 Bcf. This year’s week 20 withdrawal was considerably lower than 2017’s 137 Bcf figure, however it was greater than the five year average of 53 Bcf. Exceeding the five year average did not have the impact one might expect, as the market is nearing the $2.58-2.60 support. 2018’s late season heating demand is again being outpaced by record shale and associated gas production. Although additional heating demand remains a part of the short-term outlook, it is looking like production may control the market heading into injection season.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 1,446 Bcf. This figure is 667 Bcf (31.6%) less than this time last year and 329 Bcf (18.5%) below the five year average.

The April 2018 NYMEX Futures price started around $2.658/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since decreased to $2.631/MMBtu.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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