Natural Gas Storage Report Withdrawal Season Week 14 (Week Ending February 2, 2018)

This week’s withdrawal provided yet another non-event as the 119 Bcf pull nearly fell exactly in line with the market prediction of 116 Bcf. This draw falls beneath both last year’s and the five-year average’s values of 142 Bcf and 151 Bcf respectively. Despite previous and erroneous reports of an influential cold pattern sweeping in around this time for February, mild weather conditions are currently prevailing in a sideways market that seemingly won’t be showing any sort of spark in either direction as we approach the shoulder months. In short, there is little on the fundamental side that suggests any notable market movement in the short term, barring any sort of new legislation such as the recent hike in solar import tariffs or unexpected weather events.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 2,078 Bcf. This figure is 503 Bcf (19.5%) less than this time last year and 393 Bcf (15.9%) below the five year average.

The March 2018 NYMEX Futures price started around $2.73/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since dropped to $2.71/MMBtu.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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