Natural Gas Storage Report Injection Season Week 15

Market expectation was 32 Bcf and the actual injection was 28 Bcf. The market seems to be unaffected by this injection for it looks like it is “just hovering in a range and is unable to increase into the high teens” per some New York floor traders.  Last year we had an injection of 38 Bcf and the five year average stands at 59 Bcf. Current weather forecasts are predicting a cool New England, a warm West and much of the Midwest to be on the cool side.  The market is flat with a lean toward a slight bullish trend.Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 2,973 Bcf which is within the five-year historical range. This figure is 299 Bcf (9.1%) less than this time last year and 141 Bcf (5%) above the five year average of 2,832.

The August 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $3.08/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since elevated to $3.09/MMBtu following the EIA report.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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